New Middle School Deemed “Unaffordable”

Weston Today photos

On Wednesday evening, a subcommittee of the Board of Finance presented, for public comment, its draft of a model to forecast how much debt the town could take on while adhering to certain fiscal guidelines and how various levels would impact the mill rate and tax bills.

The debt capacity subcommittee’s first finding was that last year’s proposal to build a new Weston Middle School at a cost of $110 million (rounded down) is not affordable, even if the state were to grant 22 percent reimbursement (by no means a sure thing), which would bring the local share down to about $88 million.

The subcommittee — consisting of finance board chair Michael Imber and members Rone Baldwin and Chris Bryant — recommend that the Board of Education develop alternatives.

The proposal to build a new middle school was floated last May by the school board. The plan was, in effect, vetoed days later by First Selectwoman Samantha Nestor, largely because it didn’t take into account other Town and school district infrastructure needs and the big financial picture, a deficiency three subcommittees of the finance board were designed to correct.

Meanwhile at the Board of Education since last May, there has been little talk, perhaps none, about reviving the new-school plan. But one alternative has already been considered. It was used by the subcommittee as contrast to the cost of a new building. Another approach may be emerging, a variation on the new construction theme.

The “Colliers Plan”

The subcommittee developed a number of scenarios of spending, debt, and tax impact over the course of the next 20 years. Each scenario includes a comparison of new school construction versus much lower estimates to fix everything that needs fixing in all four schools and other district facilities.

Estimates the subcommittee used were prepared by Colliers Project Leaders, consultants brought in by the school board late last year to create an alternative (and minimal) capital improvement plan.

In that plan, which totals roughly $50 million spread over ten years, school district facilities would be restored by 2035 to what they were the last time major work was done on them. That’s 2005 for the high school and Weston Intermediate, and 1996 for the middle school and Hurlbutt. Systems would be put into good working order, but there would be no modernization, expansion, contraction, or renovation.

The estimates assume replacing mechanical systems with in-kind new or refurbished versions, assuming the equipment is still manufactured and meets current mandatory standards. If not, the Colliers team acknowledges that the estimates would be low. Costs for some items on the list are unknown, and in all likelihood none would qualify for state reimbursement.

The variation

This month, the Board of Education took initial steps to consider another alternative, a middle ground between building a new school and the minimal capital improvement plan.

The alternative is to renovate-as-new, which (put very simply) means fixing everything inside and outside half of the structure, demolishing the other half, and building something new in its place.

Compared to a new building, this approach is usually cheaper, so the state likes it. At current rates, 22 percent of eligible costs are reimbursed. (The rate for new construction is 11 percent. Despite the optimism in last year’s new-school plan, qualifying for more requires an unusual legislative exception.)

The state requires certification by a licensed engineer that a renovate-as-new candidate is structurally sound and will last 50 years once completed. So, this month the school district engaged an engineering firm to perform the assessment.

If the district eventually proceeds to offer a renovate-as-new proposal, a few problems will have to be overcome.

One is cost. Estimates prepared last year by Tecton Architects showed a lower cost to renovate-as-new, but possibly not low enough to qualify as “affordable” if run through the debt capacity model, which so far hasn’t happened.

Tecton’s estimates also indicated that costs might only be lower at first. Renovating-as-new is done in stages over several years, possibly taking twice as long, while prices escalate and potentially add millions to the final tab. Education is disrupted for a longer period as well.

About the model

The model developed by the debt capacity subcommittee is complicated. Its hypothetical scenarios are based on known capital improvement needs (although costs for many are best guesses), projected trajectories of Town and school district spending, Grand List growth, and other factors.

Like most forecasting tools, it contains many assumptions and, while spanning 20 years, is likely most reliable (to the extent that it is) for five. After that, according to Mr. Imber, it is more “directional.”

As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Scenarios in the model also include work by two other subcommittees on guidelines for debt management (for example, a ceiling for annual debt service as a percentage of total spending) and standards for maintaining the town’s unreserved fund balance. Those two subcommittees presented draft work for public comment in January.

The policies — not yet adopted by the full Board of Finance — are meant to help guide the current board and future ones, but are not binding on either. Nor do they constrain any other Town body.

The Board of Finance, Feb. 26, 2025. Weston Today photo