Covid Report: July 21

Key chart from this report

Sections in this report

The Daily (every weekday evening):

Weston and Fairfield County  Charts depicting Weston’s up-to-date cumulative cases and recent trends in the county: average new daily cases, the number of residents hospitalized for Covid-19, and the cumulative total of Covid-19 fatalities.

The Weekly (usually on Thursday evenings):

Weston Weekly  Weston vaccination status by age group and, over a six-week period, the town’s 14-day cases, case rates, number of tests, and positivity percentages.

Red Alert Weekly  The most recent map of Connecticut hotspots.

The Daily

We average the daily new cases for the seven-day period ending on the date of the latest reported data, then do the same for five preceding weeks. Averaging reduces the variability of daily numbers that may be partly influenced by the number of tests performed on a given day.

The graphic provides a clear representation of the course the disease has recently taken. An upward course does not necessarily predict an upward trend. A downward trend over several weeks may indicate that efforts to contain and reduce the spread of infection are working.

We focus on the county, as the State recommends, because the dataset is larger and more reliable. It is also most relevant, since few people confine their activities to their town’s borders.

Weston Weekly

Latest update: July 15, 2021.

The following graphics represent six weeks of 14-day metrics reported most recently by the state’s Department of Public Health.

The chart above depicts Weston’s case rate as 14-day averages reported each week for the past six weeks.

The case rate is the average daily number of new cases. To allow comparison to other population sizes, it is expressed as an average per 100 thousand of population.

Case rates were comparatively low in the autumn, less than seven percent, and critically high in mid-January, where they reached the low eighties.

We see the case rate as the most relevant indicator of what is going on. We are far less impressed by the positivity rate, which gets all the headlines, especially when it jumps on a daily basis.

This chart depicts the average 14-day positivity rates for Weston, calculated at the end of each of the past six weeks. Averaging the rate over 14 days muffles the daily volatility. But the basic issue with the positivity rate is that one would think it connects to actual cases, but it doesn’t.

When someone tests positive, he or she is counted as a confirmed case once and only once. But every test that person takes, no matter how many, no matter whether positive or negative, goes into the positivity calculation. That is true for all tests. As a result, the figure is more indicative of how much testing is being done than what is actually happening with the virus.

Red Alert Weekly

Latest update: July 15, 2021. Five Connecticut municipalities have slipped back onto the Alert map. Franklin is in the Red zone, Andover and Salem are in Orange, Griswold and New Hartford are in Yellow. The rest are in the gray zone, the lowest, meaning their case rate is less than 5 per 100 thousand of population or they had fewer than 5 reported cases in the two-week period.

Cities and towns are in Red Alert when their average daily Covid-19 case rate over the previous two weeks is greater than 15 per 100,000 of population.

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